International Crises: There is no better alternative than a Presidential Command Council to end war.
English - Saturday 06 May 2023 الساعة 09:36 am
Sana'a, NewsYemen, exclusive:
On Thursday, the International Crisis Group issued a report on Yemen, "Newsyemen" translates the most important of it.
The report focused on the ongoing Saudi-Houthi talks and the position of the Presidential Leadership Council in them. While it included criticism of the council regarding its vision for the country's future, it also included warnings against not being keen on the unity of its members and their support to enhance the council's performance as an independent entity in governing the country.
The report stated that "now is the time for the council to fix its problems", and that if the Saudi-Houthi talks do not include the major differences between the Houthis and their opponents, they will risk a renewal of war, and on the contrary if the talks lead to an expanded Yemeni-Yemeni dialogue. The International Crisis Group believes that this expanded dialogue is the guarantor of ending the war in Yemen, and not the ongoing talks alone.
The report, which its authors relied on Yemeni government sources and Western diplomatic sources, said that the members of the Presidential Leadership Council must agree on how to share power in the liberated areas. and on the main issues related to whether Yemen remains unified, its return to the previous status as two states, or its becoming a federation with a specified number of federal regions. He noted that it is not clear to the council whether these complex issues should be resolved before or after the talks with the Houthis. Considering that this is one of the main problems facing the Council. The report warned of "deepening gaps in the council". Both by regional backers and by Western powers that he said "lack a clear policy as to what should be done" to strengthen the unity of the PLC.
Regarding the Saudi-Houthi negotiations, which were expected to resume this week, the report said that the members of the Presidential Leadership Council must agree to a unified negotiating position in the talks, and that without this unified position they "risk leaving empty-handed from these talks, which leads to more instability in the negotiations." the country.” While stressing the need for Saudi Arabia and the UAE to further unify their visions "towards the council and Yemen as a whole," it said, "Western and regional diplomats must work together to provide the PLC resources" to engage in Yemen-Yemen negotiations directly.
The report touched on what it called "setbacks" suffered by the National Army forces in 2021, considering these setbacks as a cause and consequence of internal disputes between the anti-Houthi forces, which the Houthis exploited to seize large areas in Al-Bayda, Shabwa and Marib before the giants' forces intervened to restore most of the those areas.
The report said that those events showed Riyadh that its Yemeni allies "were no match for the Houthis."
Returning to the ongoing talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, the report said, based on what it called "Crisis Group sources." The "road map" that Saudi Arabia presented to the Houthis and then presented to the members of the Presidency Council, "responds to many of the Houthis' demands," including increasing the number of flight destinations to and from Sana'a airport, lifting all restrictions on the port of Hodeidah, and for Saudi Arabia to pay six months' salaries to employees. civilians and military personnel across Yemen. Commenting on the salary item here, the report believes that this is a "temporary solution", especially since the Houthis believe that the government pays salaries from oil revenues, and that Saudi Arabia proposes that the Houthis and the Presidential Leadership Council take what could be considered a "six-month grace period to negotiate an agreement to share Oil revenues and determining how salaries will be paid afterwards.
The report quoted unnamed sources as saying that members of the Presidential Leadership Council "fear that Saudi Arabia's exit from Yemen will lay the groundwork for the Houthis to launch new attacks in an attempt to control the entire country," and that they believe that "the Houthis are procrastinating in negotiations, taking advantage of Saudi Arabia's impatience to extricate itself from Yemen." Yemen, to make greater demands and threaten to resume hostilities" if their demands are not implemented.
In its report, the International Crisis Group quoted a "Western diplomat" as saying that "messages from regional actors reach the members of the Presidential Leadership Council, but the reactions from the Council do not flow in the opposite direction..." and added, according to the Western diplomat: "We do not know Never, whether Riyadh takes into account the red lines of the various components of the council. It also quoted a Yemeni "government official" as saying regarding the salary and oil revenue item: "It is not logical for Saudi Arabia to negotiate oil revenues on our behalf."
The report stated that the members of the Presidential Leadership Council may sign the results of the Saudi-Houthi talks in the event that the two sides reach an agreement, but they will sign "reluctantly", because that means that they will "accept conditions that they did not negotiate." As for the Houthis - the report says - the war, from their point of view, puts them in the face of Riyadh, and they can deal with other Yemeni parties once the coalition leaves.
The report indicated that what makes matters worse is that the government headed by the Presidential Leadership Council is going through a financial crisis, and that the reason for delaying the Saudi deposit to the Central Bank of Yemen is "unclear" until now. Although the Yemeni government "has largely fulfilled Riyadh's condition to reform the bank," according to Yemeni officials. The report indicated that the Houthis are doubling down on their strategy of stifling the legitimate government financially, at times by launching attacks on oil export ports. and sometimes by diverting commercial imports from Aden to Hodeidah. As the government runs out of money to pay salaries in the areas it controls, it increases its dependence on Saudi financial assistance and reduces its bargaining power with the Houthis in supposed future talks. He continued, "As long as the [Houthis] rebels can jeopardize the government's main source of income through threats to oil facilities, the council cannot push them to make concessions, such as abandoning the government's demand to pay salaries to the Houthi forces."
"In the face of all these difficulties, the members of the Presidential Leadership Council have yet to demonstrate their ability to put aside their differences...the members will need to make concessions, even at the expense of their influence on the ground," the report noted.
While the report stated that "Riyadh needs to adopt an internal Yemeni dialogue and a settlement that restores stability to the country," it said that the basic condition for achieving this goal depends on the coherence of the Presidential Leadership Council in a reasonable manner.
The report stresses once again that prospects for peace in Yemen depend on the unity of the Presidential Leadership Council. Despite its problems, the council is the most inclusive body in the fractious anti-Houthi political landscape. "There is no better alternative on offer as a counterpart to the Houthis in the intra-Yemeni talks, which are essential to a sustainable end to the conflict."
The report recommends that the Presidential Leadership Council should prepare a realistic negotiating position in anticipation of the start of the Yemeni-Yemeni talks soon, and that the government should formulate a negotiating strategy on issues on which the council can achieve consensus. Moreover, members of the Presidential Leadership Council should seek to spend more time inside Yemen and not operate primarily from overseas capitals, as their frequent absences have created a political vacuum.
He recommends that "the Saudis should also ensure that any deal they strike with the Houthis paves the way for intra-Yemeni talks by making any benefits in the deal conditional on the Houthis agreeing to negotiate directly with the Presidential Leadership Council and eventually" under the auspices of the United Nations. In addition, the report recommends that Riyadh "must work closely with other Middle Eastern capitals, including Abu Dhabi and Tehran, in exerting pressure on the various Yemeni parties to hold these talks as soon as possible." And on the role of Western and regional diplomats. The report recommended that they "work together to formulate a clearly coordinated policy toward the PLC and to agree on a political and economic agenda for the PLC, with specific, visible and achievable benchmarks."
