Analysis: Missing Links in the Agenda for Negotiations with the Houthis
English - Thursday 04 May 2023 الساعة 09:51 am
Sana'a, NewsYemen, exclusive:
Since the beginning of the agreement on the entry into force of the armistice in April 2022, through its three renewals, and the development of negotiations to end the war in Yemen to a regional level, efforts for a political settlement almost seem to be stalling.
Yesterday, Tuesday, the UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, said at the end of his visit to the leaders of the Houthi militia in Sana'a, that he heard encouraging words from them and did not forget to include "all parties" that they also encouraged him for their constructive involvement in the settlement efforts. Grundberg, who said that his discussions with the group's leaders were "frank and detailed", adopted in his press briefing that he gave at Sana'a airport, during his departure to Aden, adopted the point of view that the Houthi leaders stated days after the visit of the Saudi and Omani delegations to Sana'a (last April). . It centers around the need for any peace agreement to provide "tangible benefits".
It is natural for any peace mediator to adopt in his statements the point of view of this or that party in order to maintain balance and continue to accept him as an unbiased mediator. However, Grundberg's statements this time did not even carry indirect messages to the Houthis regarding their constant threats of military escalation. In addition, the provisions that he urged the need to implement are still the same as those included in the April armistice agreement, with the exception of “the resumption of the country’s oil exports.” Instead of “opening Sana’a airport,” he urged “an increase in the number of destinations and flights.”
Over the past year, Sana'a airport was opened and restrictions on commercial ships to the port of Hodeidah were lifted, while the "opening of roads" closed by the Houthis in Taiz and other governorates remained unimplemented. At a time when more restrictions on the port of Hodeidah were lifted, the Houthis attacked the oil export port in Hadramout, and Abdul-Malik al-Houthi boasted in one of his speeches the accuracy of the missile, which he said had "hit even the spigot" of pumping oil. The international community and the Security Council condemned the attack, which would have undermined peace efforts from its foundations, but going to more advanced negotiations shortly after the attack gave the Houthis more room to maneuver and stick to their terms. Including increasing flight destinations from Sana'a airport, although this depends on the approval of other countries and not just the Yemeni government.
What is remarkable about these negotiations is the absence of the conditions of the Presidential Leadership Council for discussing the statements of government leaders, in contrast to the repeated and strict statements of the Houthis regarding their conditions. Such as paying the salaries of all government employees from oil revenues, not to mention the undisclosed conditions and their pressure on regional and international mediators to implement provisions that guarantee their recognition as a legitimate authority over what is under their hands from the Yemeni geography. On the other hand, limiting the government's conditions to the negotiations led to the opening of roads and crossings closed by the Houthis. The government side refused to pay salaries from oil revenues only, to dedicate the Houthis to their authority beyond being a "de facto authority". The changes they made in the structure of government institutions, their adherence to their right to rule Yemen according to the so-called "principle of mandate" and their willingness to fight for their authoritarian ambition, all of this is not matched by clear government requirements in the negotiating agenda. This is because the item on forming a national unity government seems far-fetched, compared to what the coup group is doing to establish itself as an absolute ruler of the country without the need for him to be elected by the people.
In the outcome of the perspective vision of the efforts of the political settlement, the picture appears as follows: If the current negotiations are faltering in the details of salaries and air, land and sea outlets, then how can they be when the negotiation reaches the form of government and the structure of the state, which are the two points that triggered the war by the Houthis in 2014, during their discussion at a conference National Dialogue! It is true that Yemen faces a valuable opportunity for peace, but it is a "risky" opportunity, as Hans Grundberg put it in his recent media briefing.
