Analysis: What after the international and regional community's pampering of the Houthi militia!
English - Monday 19 June 2023 الساعة 09:10 am
Al-Mokha, NewsYemen, exclusive:
More than eight years after the start of the Arab coalition's military intervention to support the legitimate government in restoring the power that the Houthi militia, Iran's arm, overthrew in 2014, many events in this endeavor have become in the interest of the coup militia.
During the past eight years, the war went through several turns, the latest of which was the signing of the armistice in April 2022, which coincided with the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council and the transfer of all presidential powers to it. Amidst the state of optimism that prevailed in the Yemeni street regarding the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council, the Yemenis were counting on this council to move the country from a state of war to a state of peace or to resolve the matter in confronting the Houthi militia militarily and forcing it to engage in negotiations that lead to a just and comprehensive peace. However, the Houthi militia continued its intransigence, which it had been accustomed to since before the outbreak of the war, when the international and regional community was lenient with the group to encourage it to engage in the political process that followed the signing of the Gulf initiative.
When the Houthi militia turned against power in September 2014 and completed its coup in January 2015, the international and regional community took decisive measures to deter the group mired in the darkness of the past. The neighboring countries of the Gulf did not intend to intervene militarily to deter the Houthi group from a vacuum, as it was confirmed to them, at that time, that excessive coddling of a sectarian armed group was a grave mistake. At that time, it became clear to all the countries sponsoring the Gulf initiative and its implementation mechanism that the group's behavior was inclined towards seizing power and excluding all political forces from power by force of arms. Therefore, those countries agreed on the need for military intervention to brake the group's possessiveness. So why, then, have these states returned to coddling the militia again?
Many observers of Yemeni affairs agree that the Russian-Ukrainian war, which broke out on February 26, 2022, led to a dramatic shift in the course of the wars taking place in the Arab region. According to this logic, the Russian-Ukrainian war can be considered one of the reasons that led to the ripening of the April 2022 armistice agreement in Yemen, and it is not far from that war that the armistice has also held for nearly a year and a half now. The countries of the West, which were preoccupied with supporting their allies in the wars in the Middle East, have become preoccupied with supporting a greater and more important ally for them, which is Ukraine. In this situation, the positions of America, Britain and the countries of the European Union united against Russia, while China and Iran found themselves on the side of Russia, albeit in a political position, against the countries of the international coalition inherited since World War II.
In this context, what appeared to be the abandonment by America and Britain of its Arab allies, and it was natural for the Arab countries, especially the Arab Gulf countries, to strengthen their relations with Russia and China. While it was also natural that this development in international relations would lead to an increase in Iranian influence in the Arab region, China seized the opportunity to take the initiative to sponsor a Saudi-Iranian agreement, which happened last March.
The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement was also among the reasons that led to the decline of the military role of the Arab coalition in Yemen. Not only that, but it prompted the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to prove its good intentions, so it changed its dealings with Iran's arm in Yemen towards peace and pressured the legitimate government and the parties represented in the Presidential Leadership Council to accept a political settlement with Iran's arm. The visit of the Saudi delegation, headed by the Kingdom’s ambassador to Yemen, Muhammad Al Jaber, to Sana’a came in the context of confidence-building measures between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The commitment of the parties represented in the Presidential Leadership Council to the armistice and respect for peace efforts and endeavors indicates that Saudi Arabia is actually pressuring its Yemeni allies to stop the war against Iran’s arm. in the country. But what happens in return on the part of the Houthi militia?
The leaders of the Houthi militia deliberately insulted the Saudi delegation, which is still in Sana'a, and intensified their statements that included explicit threats to resume the war against the legitimate government and to resume their missile attacks against vital targets in the Kingdom and the UAE. After more restrictions were lifted on the port of Hodeidah, the militia forced the private sector to import goods through the port of Hodeidah instead of the port of Aden, and imposed more restrictions and levies on the private sector in its areas of control, and continues to prevent the export of oil from the liberated provinces under threat Targeting facilities with missile strikes and marches, and recently the militia authorities prevented the entry of gas produced in Ma'rib governorate into their areas and replaced it with imported gas at a higher cost, and even threatened to bomb local gas production facilities.
All this and other militia intransigence of Iran's arm in Yemen, is matched by indecisive stances by the international and regional community against the militia. In conjunction with this year's Hajj season, Saudi Arabia allowed direct flights from Sana'a to Jeddah to transport pilgrims coming from militia-controlled areas. Despite all of this, the Houthis' threats continue to bomb vital targets in the Kingdom and to resume the war! What is not clear in this dysfunctional equation is the extent to which the militia's coddling can reach, regionally and internationally, and the consequences of that!
