British newspaper: The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is fragile, but the potential of the Middle East is enormous
English - Monday 08 May 2023 الساعة 07:46 pm
Mocha, NewsYemen, exclusive:
The British Guardian newspaper published, on Monday (May 8), an analysis by the diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, in which he described the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement as "fragile," but at the same time said that "the potential of the Middle East is enormous," referring to the possibility that this rapprochement will hold to some extent. Thanks to the financial capabilities.
If this rapprochement takes root, Wintour said, "it could bode well for Yemen, Lebanon and Syria, but it could spell disaster for Israel." He cited some evidence indicating that the convergence is real. It supposedly led to the resumption of civilian flights between the two countries, and an Iranian won a $800,000 Saudi Quran reading competition. In addition, Iranian iron is making its way to the Saudi market. He also inferred the embrace of officials from the two countries after the Saudi navy rescued 60 Iranians who were trapped in Sudan. He expected the Iranian president to announce a visit to Riyadh soon, the first by an Iranian president since 2007.
The Guardian's analysis states that the Saudi and Iranian sides drew up a two-month plan to normalize diplomatic and economic relations, which were severed in 2016 after protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, but he wonders if these winds of change can spread across the Middle East and end the conflicts in Yemen. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and even Israel, all exacerbated or even perpetuated by the Saudi-Iranian rivalry.
The newspaper reported statements by diplomats based in London, one of whom described the rapprochement of the two rival countries as a comfortable break for the two parties. She also cited the conversations of experts and researchers, Ksenzia Bianco, a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who said that "the deal is real, but very fragile," and that the two parties are still "looking for potential insurance policies" in the event that a Republican president in the United States ascends in the upcoming elections or In the event of an Israeli attack on Iran.
An Arab diplomat in London likened the Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement to building a ground floor on which other countries can build, which indicates - according to the newspaper - that the repercussions for the region may ultimately be dangerous, and that this agreement may indicate "the decline of Washington's influence in the Middle East, and weaken Israel, brings Syrian President Bashar al-Assad back into the Arab fold, provides Saudi Arabia with a new long-term carbon market in China, and begins to end Iran's economic isolation.
The newspaper quoted Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East research for the Eurasia Group, as expecting this process to be slow even with China playing the role of guarantor. "It is not possible to move from competition to great cooperation overnight. I believe that Iranian-Gulf relations will move from an era of confrontation to a more normal era where there are differences, competition and cooperation." said Kamel, who portrayed the détente as part of a broader realignment in the Middle East. "Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states want to establish global partnerships with the United States as the main pillar, not the only one," he said. Their preference remains to have a much closer relationship with Washington, but they are not willing to sever ties with other powers such as China.
The newspaper said that Riyadh did not feel secure in its relationship with Washington for at least a decade, as once the US dependence on Saudi oil ended, Washington's role as a provider of security for the latter was inevitably questioned, and their paths slowly diverged. Riyadh also saw Barack Obama's support for the Arab Spring as misleading, and tried to obstruct his efforts to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015. It recalled that Iranian-made missiles launched by the Houthis - Iran's arm - caused half of Saudi Arabia's oil production to stop in September 2019, and that this It was a shocking revelation for the Saudi front, likewise the targeting of four Emirati ships in the Gulf of Oman in the same year by Iran's arm in Yemen, which led to an Arab sense of humiliation at the indifference with which Western countries dealt with it. The newspaper said that this led Prince Mohammed bin Salman to follow the United Arab Emirates in the final caution towards less exposed places, and then pay attention to developing the Saudi economy.
The newspaper said that the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran may have exacerbated many pre-existing conflicts in the region, but did not create them, and that rapprochement will not end them. According to researcher Cinzia Bianco, "All these conflicts are self-made, but they also have a regional dimension that feeds the local element, and this makes them more complex and bloodier."
It added that there is a potential opportunity for progress in Yemen, where Iran has armed the Houthi rebels, but the rivalry between the Houthi group, the legitimate government, and the forces of the Southern Transitional Council has its roots in Yemen itself. "Iranian control over the Houthis is not complete, so the Iranian promise to do what it can is just rhetoric," said Dina Esfandiari, a Middle East analyst with the International Crisis Group.
